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How to Pick and Bet on a Kentucky Derby Winner

Just like the lottery, big odds draw a lot of excitement and attention.

Although there are people more qualified to give Derby tips, like many financial commentators, I won’t let lack of expertise stop me.

When I go to the track, I don’t look at the racing form, jockeys, past history or pick horses with funny names. You can write to Don at don@donmcnay.com or read his award winning, syndicated column at www.donmcnay.com. I stick to it today.

Don McNay, CLU, ChFC, MSFS, CSSC is the founder of McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Kentucky.

When your sitting back

In your rose pink Cadillac

Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day

– The Rolling Stones

This Blogger’s Books and Other Items from…

For whatever reason, my system has failed me at Kentucky Derbies. That is better than any other kind of bet.

I usually win enough money to pay for lunch.

Dad was superstitious and started to believe that my system was jinxing him.

Dad liked the excitement of big odds and big payoffs.

The professors said that betting to show will produce a winner 52% of the time. I can tell you what horses make the biggest mess. Quandi.

It drove him absolutely crazy.

The professors frown on exactas, daily doubles or any bet that exhibits large risk.. Betting to show fits with my overall philosophy about investing.

As the son of a professional gambler, people often ask me for betting advice.

The professors hate jackpots like the Pick-6.

The idea is that the marketplace will move with the crowd towards the best outcome.

I came to the conclusion that by living in Kentucky, I needed to know how to bet on horses.

Like in the investment world, the winner at race track is the person with a conservative style and discipline. He knew everything about the horse’s past performance, their breeding and who was riding them. If dad ever met the professors, he would have punched them in the nose.

It was written by two statistics professors and not the easiest book to read.

The book bases the ability to pick horses on an economic theory known as the wisdom of crowds.

I picked the horse because of an alumni connection to a man I had never met.

Bet on the horse that everyone else is betting on. He and I would go to Keeneland every session and we never picked the same horse.

If a horse moves from 10 to 1 to 2 to 1, it is probably a good horse to bet on.

Although I started going to race tracks before I was able to walk, I don’t know much about the horse industry. The last one I remember winning was Sunday Silence in 1989. I would bet $10 and win. (My mother was a sucker for horses with funny names.) I just follow the odds. I go the track a few times a year and bet small amounts.

Just like the lottery, you don’t see many people winning them.

Most of my equine knowledge was gleamed when I worked on the clean-up crew at the Kentucky Horse Park.

Bet on the horse to show, not to win or place. I can sum up the advice in two statements.

Thus the best advice may be to forget all the high powered systems and experts and give it your best guess.

He is the author of Son of a Son of a Gambler: Winners, Losers and What to Do When You When The Lottery.

I found a book called Racetrack Betting: The Professors’ Guide to Strategies by Peter Asch and Richard E. It is a driving force for web sites like Google. His owner, Arthur Hancock III, had graduated from Vanderbilt and I had received a Masters Degree from Vandy the year before. Slow and steady works in the financial markets and works at the track too. He would bet $100 on a horse and lose.

I stuck to my system. I didn’t pick Sunday Silence because of my system.

Betting to show is a practice that I follow religiously.

The wisdom of crowds concept is really popular now. It was a stupid reason for picking a horse but produced one of my few winners.

My father, a professional gambler, absolutely HATED my betting system

BAM! It’s Off To The Race & Sports Book….Emeril Style

Suggest a correction

The Sports Book is usually comfortable — tables, chairs, a nearby conveniently located bar and lots of TV screens and big LCD scoreboards. Thus, husbands could spend the night at the tables.

In case you didn’t recognize him, that very happy man aboveleft is Emeril Lagasse.

Lagasse’s Stadium boasts private luxury boxes that open directly onto the Las Vegas Strip. The line was out the door. The photo was taken last Friday when he hosted the grand opening of Lagasse’s Stadium at the Palazzo Las Vegas.

Now, the sports book is not unique to Las Vegas. But a Sports Book? No idea.

Lagasse’s Stadium is not a place to play games. There are billiard tables, gaming consoles and a DJ booth.

The 24,000 square-foot space — very wisely — has features that will please both bettor and non-bettor. They have them in other places. I knew what Off-Track Betting (OTB) is because in New York that is common and — being my father’s daughter — I do like the ponies at Triple Crown time. I am not a regular at all. With lots of amenities.

To celebrate the opening, celebrities from the worlds of both sports and entertainment walked the “Green Carpet.” Among them were Entourage actors Jeremy Piven and Kevin Dillon, Warren Sapp, formerly of the Oakland Raiders, Olympic Gold-medalist Bruce Jenner, race car driver Danica Patrick.

It is because of the Sports Books here that Super Bowl weekend is the busiest one of the year.

The philosophy there seems to be the same that led to the creation of lounge entertainment 50+ years ago. So, while players can bet, they can also find white-tablecloth service and the best of Emeril Lagasse’s food.

In his sports book, Lagasse offers the same thing. There are 105 hi-def TVs, including two custom-built 103-inch plasma screens and a 9 x 16 video wall. (Haven’t been in all of them, so I cannot be any more definitive.) It is where anyone wishing to bet on any sport and for which a person can place a bet can go and bet. You find people carrying odds sheets, newspapers and other publications dealing with sports.

Lagasse, a Boston native who is a self-confessed “sports junkie” got the festivities going with a hearty “BAM!” Two days later I happened to be near there and took a peek. But, with lounge acts playing practically all night, the wives had something to do and weren’t bored. Rather, it is a place where one can find a form of gaming. But, remember, this is Las Vegas so, of course, the most spectacular sports book anywhere is here and it’s Lagasse’s Stadium.

It is very smart planning.

So, what I’ve learned is that a Sports Book is a feature of just about every casino in town. At that time, most gamblers were men (probably still are) and the wives would get bored waiting around for them and would coax them away from the tables. But what I describe below is very impressive.. Looks like the Palazzo bet on a winner.

2009-09-30-emeril.jpgNote: I don’t work for the Palazzo and only tend to go there either to see a show or take visitors to the shops. The people who staff them are usually quite willing to explain such arcane concepts as the “point spread” to people who — as I was — are clueless. There are poker machines, a nifty computerized blackjack game and lots to eat — from very casual to full gourmet meals.There’s also, overlooking The Strip and the pirate show at Treasure Island just across the street, plenty to watch.

I didn’t know what a sports book was until I moved here. Specifically, it is a Sports Book

Live Bet Makes Watching Sports More Fun With First-Ever Play-by-Play Free Betting App

Unlike fantasy football

tournaments or apps, Live

Bet enables fans to bet along with actual live sporting events as

the action happens; wagering on everything from the final score, point

spread, and what will happen next.

Website: http://live-bet-sports.com

Facebook

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Facebook

Page: https://www.facebook.com/LiveBetSports?ref=br_tf

Twitter:

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YouTube:

http://youtu.be/8R1M49d1NZ0

. Over the course of several

events, players can earn their way into higher stakes tournaments. To join a tournament, players log on via their Facebook

profile and use credits – which refresh on game days, to enter the

tournament of their choice for free. Players who end up at the top of

the leaderboard are eligible for real money gifts, which are determined

by the size and stakes of the tournament. Live Bet is a collaboration with Metric

Games, an industry leader in mobile sports wagering software, and

social casino developer Bellwether Technologies, LLC.

Since its inception mid-last year, Live Bet has already raised $1M

against a $3M valuation between Castle, Metric Gaming, Bellwether

Technologies, LLC, and other private investors.

LAS VEGAS–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Live Bet, a developer of social sports betting second screen

experiences, is announcing its new Live Bet Sports free play-by-play

tournament-style betting service and app. “Consider that a recent NFL

poll showed 37 percent of those polled participate in some sort of

fantasy football, Super Bowl pool, sports book bet or bet with an

associate – you can see the potential appeal for an app like Live Bet.”

About Live Bet

Additional Resources:

Bets can be placed on yardage gained, penalties, turnovers, and more in

a dynamic experience powered by Metric

Gaming’s world-class sports betting analytics and professional odds

makers setting the market. Viewership for this season’s games

shows the NFL is more

popular than ever, with the 2014 division championship games

averaging 34.3M

viewers each; up from last year,” said Louis Castle, CEO of Live

Bet.

“Bellwether brought their social casino expertise to the table and Live

Bet was born.”

For more information or to join a tournament, please visit: http://live-bet-sports.com.

Founded in 2014 by video game and casino gaming veteran Louis

Castle (former CSO of ShuffleMaster;

co-founder of Westwood

Studios), Live Bet is a privately-held company based in Las Vegas,

Nevada. Players more knowledgeable about their teams,

the game, or sports betting odds will have an advantage, though Live Bet

is intuitive enough for the most casual betting pool participant to

enjoy. Launching its open beta just

in time for the Super

Bowl game on Sunday, February 1st, Live Bet’s ‘lean in’

second screen experience is played along with the game via smartphones,

tablets or on a browser, which makes watching live sports more engaging

and fun.

No other company domestically, real money or free-to-play, offers

authentic play-by-play sports line betting. There’s even a chat feature to taunt your opponents.

“I saw a demonstration of Metric’s real time mobile betting technology

and my thoughts immediately jumped to the application it would have as a

second screen experience for sports enthusiasts,” continued Castle. They

can also buy their way in by purchasing additional credits via PayPal or

Facebook credits.

“Last year’s Super Bowl was the most watched live TV event in US

history, despite it being a blowout

Clay Aiken Could Face Long Odds in a Possible Congressional Race

“I don’t think he wants a repeat performance of ‘American Idol,’” Randy Voller, North Carolina’s Democratic Party chair, said of Aiken. Flipping a seat controlled by the opposition party in the midterms is a heavy lift, and in a district where the president remains unpopular, it’s next to impossible.

Aiken also has the benefit of a potentially divisive Republican primary. Most celebrity candidates who have won political office, such as Ronald Reagan, Sonny Bono, Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sean Duffy and Heath Shuler, ran in areas that aligned with their profiles and political leanings. Jones, a cast member of the TV show “The Dukes of Hazzard”, defeated then-incumbent Rep. Ellmers has drawn a primary challenge from former banking executive and current radio talk show host Frank Roche. Ben Jones (D-Ga.). Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.), and Rep. He is from nearby Raleigh, and could bring a familiarity with the district and its issues to the campaign trail. In 2010, Ellmers won her seat from a Democratic incumbent by less than a single percentage point, just before redistricting transformed the 2nd into a fairly safe Republican seat. Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Rep. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato continues to list the district as ‘Safe Republican’, while political handicappers Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook have yet to deem the race as being in play.

Aiken’s candidacy comes as prospects for Democratic congressional candidates appear less than ideal. And unlike Jones, Aiken will be running in a district made Republican through redistricting in an non-presidential year election.

Aiken’s candidacy, however, still has a few things going for it. Democrats also hold a slight registration edge in the district, which has an African-American population that is several points larger than the national average.

Singer Clay Aiken has been exploring a bid for Congress, but history suggests he may face an uphill battle if he runs.

There are currently only three Democratic representatives in the House whose districts voted for Romney by comparable or higher margins than Ellmers’: Rep. Although no polls conducted in the district thus far have included him as a candidate, the area’s voting history does not bode well for a Democratic challenger.

Aiken’s fame could trump the district’s demographic and political leanings, but there is little precedent for the circumstances surrounding his potential run — a celebrity Democratic candidate campaigning in a heavily Republican state and district.

Recent reports say the former “American Idol” star has been laying the groundwork to run for the House of Representatives this year. But he not only ran against a scandal-plagued incumbent — an advantage Aiken is unlikely to have — he also lost his seat four years later. All three representatives had the benefit of an entrenched incumbency in 2012, and each represents a district that was fundamentally altered by redistricting in 2010 to lean more Republican.

But while a run against Ellmers would garner national and increased media attention, the numbers alone are not encouraging for Aiken, a registered Democrat. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.). Roche has indicated that he intends to run to Ellmers’ right, attacking her vote to raise the debt ceiling and her support for immigration reform. Renee Ellmers (R) in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District. “I think he wants to finish first, not second.”

These advantages have yet to convince some onlookers, though. The president’s low approval rating can have a correlative affect on his party’s candidates, and the president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Pat Swindall (R) in a conservative Atlanta district in 1988. In 2012, the district voted for Mitt Romney over Obama by 16 points, while reelecting Ellmers by 14 points. Aiken reportedly has already met with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leaders and is currently hiring campaign staff to prepare a run against Rep. An arch-conservative Republican nominee could provide the Democrats with just enough room in the middle to win.

. In addition, Aiken has a decade’s worth of show business connections that he could parlay into fundraising.

The district, which encompasses part of the Raleigh suburbs as well as a swath of the central and eastern parts of the state, voted for John McCain over President Barack Obama in 2008 by a 13-point margin.

The candidate in recent electoral history whose success Aiken may most want to emulate is former Rep

Pete Rose – Photo 14 – Pictures

The Reds beat the Mets 10-2.

Credit: AP

Cincinnati Reds manager Pete Rose rubs his eyes while watching a game, March 24, 1989, in Plant City, Fla. Rose was given a lifetime suspension by the baseball commissioner with the opportunity to be reinstated in one year.

Credit: AP

Former major league baseball player Pete Rose looks toward members of the media gathered outside the Marion Federal Prison after his release from the facility in Marion, Ill., Jan. 27, 1963. It centered on Rose’s lifetime ban from the sport for gambling, and came minutes after Rose was announced as a member of baseball’s All-Century team.

Credit: AP/Michael Schwarz

Cal Ripken, left, Pete Rose, and Hank Aaron, right, are seen on the field after the three were named in some of the most memorable moments in baseball before the start of game 4 of the World Series in San Francisco, Oct. 24, 1989. 2, 1982. Regular spring training facilities were also closed to the players.

Credit: AP

Cincinnati Reds’ Pete Rose walks to the Reds dugout after he struck out in the ninth inning, ending his 44-game hitting streak, against the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta, Ga., Aug.

Pete Rose, 22, of the Cincinnati Reds, Feb. After 14 years of denials, Rose admitted he gambled, though never against the Reds, in his 2004 autobiography.

Credit: AP

Former Cincinnati Reds manager Pete Rose prepares to speak at a news conference at Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio, Aug. NBC was deluged by complaints from fans in the hours after Gray’s interview. 23, 2002, in Cincinnati.

Credit: AP

. 20, 1976. Fosse suffered a fractured shoulder in the collision. 11, 1985. 8, 1978.

Credit: AP

A foul pop from Kansas City Royals batter Frank White is deflected by Philadelphia Phillies catcher Bob Boone as Phillies first baseman Pete Rose (14) moves in to make the catch in the ninth inning of a World Series game in Philadelphia, Oct. Rose, whose gambling got him banned from baseball in 1989, said he feels his induction into the Hall of Fame is inevitable. 24, 1999. 23, 2002.

Credit: AP

Former Cincinnati Reds greats, left to right, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez, and Pete Rose, tip their hats to the crowd following a celebrity softball game at Cinergy Field, Sept. The Reds defeated the Yankees, 6-2.

Credit: AP

Cincinnati Reds player Pete Rose (14) poses with his son, Pete Rose Jr., at the All-Star game at Yankee Stadium, New York City, July 19, 1977.

Credit: AP

Cincinnati Reds star Pete Rose arrives in his Rolls-Royce to work out at the West Tampa baseball complex in Tampa, Fl., March 15, 1978. He served a five-month sentence for tax evasion.

Credit: AP

Cincinnati Reds fans sit behind a sign in support of longtime Reds baseball star Pete Rose during the Reds’ game against the Detroit Tigers at Plant City Stadium, Plant City, Fla., March 24, 1996.

Credit: AP

Baseball great Pete Rose trades a high five with five-year-old J.D. 7, 1991. At right is Yankees player Graig Nettles (9). He returned to the city where he helped the Phillies win the World Series in 1980 to sign autographs at an annual Phillies-sponsored charity event.

Credit: AP

Pete Rose is interviewed by NBC’s Jim Gray after the All-Century introductions during Game 2 of the World Series in Atlanta, Ga., Oct. Most players had stopped their group workouts pending developments in that year’s baseball negotiations. 22, 1980.

Credit: AP

Phillies first baseman Pete Rose gestures as he talks about his one-year, $1.2 million contract at a news conference in Philadelphia, Pa., Nov. 8, 1973. At right is Phillies president Bill Giles.

Credit: AP

Montreal Expos player Pete Rose in congratulated by teammates Gary Carter and Argenis Salazar following his 4000th career hit during the Expo’s home opener against the Philadelphia Phillies, April 13, 1984.

Credit: AP

Cincinnati Reds’ Pete Rose slams his record-breaking hit fly toward left field during a game against the San Diego Padres in Cincinnati, Ohio, Sept. Rose broke Ty Cobb’s record of 4,192 in the first inning.

Credit: AP

Pete Rose, Cincinnati Reds manager, laughs with unidentified players in the dugout as Luis Quinones circles the bases at Shea Stadium with his second homer against the New York Mets in New York, July 6, 1989. Standing behind him are his defense lawyers Reuben Katz, left, Robert Pitcairn Jr., center, and Robert Stachler. The commissioner’s office was investigating allegations Rose bet on baseball while managing the team. Looking on are the Reds’ third base coach Leo Durocher, and Cincinnati Reds’ next hitter Dick Dietz (2).

Credit: AP

Pete Rose, left, of the Cincinnetti Reds swings at New York Mets shortstop Bud Harrelson after Rose failed to break up Harrelson’s double play in Game 3 of the National League Championship series at Shea Stadium, Oct. Both benches and bullpens emptied in the ensuing brawl.

Credit: AP

Pete Rose of the Cincinnati Reds slides to third during eighth inning of game three in World Series action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., Oct. The rookie second baseman hit .273 to earn him the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award.

Credit: AP

In the 12th inning of the 1970 All-Star Game in Cincinnati, Ohio, July 14, 1970, Cincinnati Reds’ Pete Rose slams into Cleveland Indians’ catcher Ray Fosse to score a controversial game-winning run for the National League team. Cunningham at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, June 19, 1997

All about Greyhound Racing

It is said that more greyhounds are bred every year than are

needed. Activists

protest against the abuse and neglect of greyhounds found abundantly in the

sports’ vast empire. True that

there is a widespread inhumane treatment to most of our furred and feathered

friends, but I am against it with all my heart, but a solution is not a ban or

a boycott to a very popular sport.

Even if, a bill was passed controlling greyhound races,

there will always be a legal side to this game and even worse, with tougher

sanctions, most likely animal cruelty will soar due to lack of opportunities to

rise and race greyhounds by those, who can ill-afford it. Protesting against poor dwelling places and lack of human contact of

greyhounds activists have, in my view, taken a rather tactless stance against

this sport. Overall, the best

ultimatum would be campaigning for the right thing in a right manner!

Globally, greyhound racing is an official sport, but there

is more to it than this face of speed and glamour we see. People say that dog racing is a useless, meager and cruel

practice serving the cause of a specific industry of profit and entertainment

at a heavy price from the animals, such as ill confinement, starvation, race

injuries, brutal culling etc.. The plight of

greyhounds in more impoverished and unauthorized regions is pitiful. Instead of campaigning for animal rights, they have summed up an

impressive list of facts, devoid of clever strategies and simply attacked this

sport itself with all its reforms, laws and assets.

Apart from the fact, they are not thinking along the lines

of Mother Nature, but like any opposing party – just like others do

How To Master Sports Betting

It is only going to place you in a difficult position and as much as you might think it won’t be, your decision making ability is going to be compromised. Also look into how sides perform the week after doing certain travel. You don’t want to lose money just because you weren’t on top of your game.

The most important thing is that you need to take emotion out of the equation. It could provide great insight as to predicting what will occur.

Speaking of the long run, this is what you should be focused on. On the flip side, you shouldn’t bet against a team because someone you don’t like roots for that team. For instance, if you are pretty certain that a side is going to win and they are getting good odds for this than take this. Travel is a factor such as when East Coast sides travel to the West Coast and vice versa. Hopefully this kind of thinking will keep you grounded. It doesn’t matter if it is pretty or not.

. You will be better off for doing so in the long run.

Sports betting is an easy way to make a tough living. If you are going to do it you need to do it properly and master it, it means you are completely organized and focused. What is the point of drowning yourself in statistics and research for what you could just as easily decided with a flip of the coin? So you need to sift through it all and just take the morsels here and there which are really important and make a difference. Over time, you will learn what it should be that you should be paying attention to.

Look for value bets. So do yourself a favor and swear off them. Anything less than this and it is going to be a disaster. Business is business and you need to be concentrating on who is going to win regardless of who likes and who doesn’t like which team.

In the case of team sports, injuries are important. It’s all about accumulating winnings. The weather conditions also make a difference as they do in horse racing. Thus when you are doing well, you will still be focused and when you aren’t doing so well you won’t be thinking that it’s the end of the world. You want to know who trained and who didn’t. So if you suffer a bad break along the way, just remember it goes with the territory. You can’t let the highs and lows affect you too much.

Information and doing your homework is important, but you don’t want to full into the trap of information overload. You shouldn’t favor a team because they are the team your best friend supports. Because of this point, it is probably better if you steer clear from any matches involving the teams that you like. This means that when you place your bets you need to be thinking clearly and concisely. Upsets are always going to happen but see when it makes the most sense when to go for that and when not to

10 Tips for Betting on Football

If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet.

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies.

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners.

6. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

10. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

3. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

2. “Teams play inspired ball at home. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day.

4. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose.

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky.

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

And where does all that money go?

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker.

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football.

5.

8. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

So, how much should you bet a game?

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

7. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

9.

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor.

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can.

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks.

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game.

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

1. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl

Cruz gains in online betting, Trump still Republican favorite | Reuters

It was independently created by the Reuters editorial staff. Rubio came in a distant second at 9-2, followed by Cruz at 25-1.

Cruz has gained 4 percentage points in the past two days and his predicted chances stood at the highest level on the site since he tumbled to a record low after a weak showing in the South Carolina primary on Feb 20.

On PredictIt.com, operated by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, the predicted chances of the Texas senator winning the nomination for the Nov. major-party convention since 1952 when the Democrats nominated Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson on the third ballot.

Message boards associated with PredictIt featured growing discussion of a possible brokered convention, which can occur when no candidate has won a clear majority of delegates before the start of the party’s nominating convention.

Ted Cruz’s Super Tuesday victories in his home state of Texas and neighboring Oklahoma strengthened his odds for the Republican presidential nomination on online betting sites but he still trails far behind Donald Trump.

Ladbrokes PLC said on Wednesday morning that Trump’s odds of securing the nomination were 1-5. 8 election rose to 10 percent as results from Super Tuesday voting continued to be tallied.

This article was funded in part by SAP. PredictIt had Trump’s odds of winning the nomination at 76 percent early on Wednesday, down 4 points from Monday’s record high of 80 percent.

Rubio, who scored his first win in a nominating contest on Tuesday with the Minnesota Republican caucuses, dropped 1 point to 10 percent, a record low for him.

Betting volumes on both Trump and Cruz hit records for the candidates on Tuesday and Rubio’s volume was his second highest ever.

“I am betting against Trump getting the nomination at these odds but only because I think there is a 30 percent chance the GOP elite somehow successfully blocks him at the convention,” said a post from a forum member with the username matthewcooley.

Other online betting venues also gave Trump, a New York billionaire businessman, the strongest odds of winning the nomination. SAP had no editorial involvement in its creation or production.

. But Trump, who rolled to wins in at least seven states on Super Tuesday, was outdistancing both Cruz and his other top rival, U.S. Ireland’s PaddyPower put Trump as a 1-to-7 favorite, with Rubio following at 5-1 and Cruz at 12-1.

(Reporting by Dan Burns in Washington and Anjali Athavaley in New York; Editing by Peter Cooney and Bill Trott)

There has not been a brokered U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida